A CAPITOL VIEW Elections Have Consequences By Jonathon T. Freye I t is my hope that by the time you’re reading this article, Congress will have passed another round of legislation aimed at helping our country recover from the economic and societal hardships as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. NATA was closely engaged as Congress worked to write the CARES Act, success- fully advocating for provisions that assist our industry in responding to the global coronavirus pandemic. We will continue to lobby Congress and collaborate with the FAA on your behalf, promoting policies to meet the chal- lenges faced by our industry during these challenging and changing times. Sure to bring change to the centers of power is the upcoming, and closely watched, general election. Changes in the policies that impact the aviation industry are almost a certainty. As the days remaining until the November election quickly pass by, the outcome is anything but certain, especially in light of the difficult circumstances our nation and our world are facing. But, a review of prior election results, voter registration trends, public polling and survey data, and the national political environment help to create a high-level prognostic from which we can make some forecasts. Pundits are all but certain that the House will remain in Democratic control. A number of the Democratic seats, once believed to be vulnerable because they are occupied by first term members who had “flipped” the district from Republican to Democrat in 2018, are now inching toward the “safe” category, with their general election opponents weighed down by the national environment and Administration’s more recent approval numbers. In the Senate, Republicans hold a three-seat major- ity that is inarguably in jeopardy. Democrats have not only made significant progress in states long viewed as competitive, with polling in a few of them handing the Democratic candidate a victory on election night, but more recently have also put new states in play. At least Aviation Business Journal | Summer 2020 four incumbent Senate Republicans are viewed as highly vulnerable as of this writing. And, while, at press time for this publication, the polling on the race for the White House appears to be leaning considerably in one direction, the power of incumbency has historically proven strong, and during these crazy pandemic times, there is still considerable time for a change in the winds of favor. The waning days before a general election can yield some interesting political gambits. The President has repeatedly said he wants to sign a large infrastructure bill, yet Congress has thus far failed to produce such legislation. Signing a bill into law could be a major talking point for both parties as they hit the campaign trail, but, eyeing the White House, Democrats on Capitol Hill may wager it more advanta- geous to refrain from last-minute deal making. But, should the Democrats take the Senate Majority, there would be a much clearer path for infrastructure legislation proposed and passed by the Democratically- controlled House. While that legislation met Republican opposition after it passed the House and stalled on arrival in the Senate in late June due to their objec- tions over the inclusion of environmental provisions, a Democratically-controlled Capitol would likely priori- tize passage of the bill. That bill, H.R. 2, or the INVEST in America Act, does indeed include what some would argue are partisan priorities, it also both increases the annual authorization for the Airport Improvement Program (AIP) and provides an additional $17.5 billion in supplemental funding, with a specific amount set aside for general aviation airports, and would make a major investment in Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF). A subsequent infrastructure proposal next year may not look identical, but it is clear that the parties have laid down a marker on their priorities. For now, we wait to see who is able to garner the votes and political capital to affect their agenda. 11
